NORDSCI Conference proceedings 2018, Book 2

Economics and Tourism

MODELING AND FORECASTING OF INDICATORS OF THE HIDDEN BANKRUPTCY OF THE ENTERPRISES

Dr. Natalia Sadovnikova, PhD Ekaterina Darda, PhD Olga Makhova, PhD student Elena Erina

ABSTRACT

This article contains a statistical analysis of the hidden bankruptcy of the organizations, the existing principles and approaches to the identification of a hidden bankruptcy in the early stages for the purpose of commercial credit. A new approach in the analysis of concealed bankruptcy, using the three-dimensional model that combines the most adaptive forecasting models for the global and Russian terms of trade. The stages of development of models of forecasting of bankruptcy in different countries, as well as Russian experience in research of this issue. The author offers the classification of existing models identified their advantages and disadvantages. Systematization of the models are based on statistical methods used in solving the problem of bankruptcy forecasting organizations in the selected models. The definition of hidden bankruptcy should be, the state of the enterprise, in which there are predictive trends in the deterioration of financial performance, shortcomings in the management of the company are qualified as errors and failures, and lead to financial insolvency. However, that hidden bankruptcy is not legally defined and regulated, there are many methods for evaluating the effectiveness of the company's financial activity, which has as its basis a model for assessing hidden (unrecorded) bankruptcy. Also in the predictive models are calculated indicators of cash flow, cash from operations, costs for servicing loans (sales financing from funds raised - the price of borrowed capital), tangible assets or tangible total assets, salaries - the ratio of labour costs to the added value (cost price - the cost of raw materials, energy, services of third-party organizations) or remunerated staff ratio, profit before interest and taxes or gross operating profit, revenues - gross income from sales of products, works and services, extraordinary items - extraordinary consumption and financial expenses - financial costs, as well as GNP price-level index.

KEYWORDS

commercial loans, bankruptcy risk assessment, credit policy, bankruptcy, forecasting models.

REFERENCE

NORDSCI Conference Proceedings 2018, Conference Proceedings, ISSN 2603-4107, ISBN 978-619-7495-01-0, MODELING AND FORECASTING OF INDICATORS OF THE HIDDEN BANKRUPTCY OF THE ENTERPRISES, 203-209 pp, DOI paper 10.32008/nordsci2018/B2/V1/31